Posts

Showing posts from May, 2019

Adrian Martinez 2019 Outlook

As a true freshman, Adrian Martinez had a remarkable season. With over 2600 yards passing and another 600 rushing and 25 total TDs, he had a good season for a player of any age. I wanted to look at how Martinez stacks up against other players who went on to start three and four for their teams. While looking at specifically true freshman might provide a better comparable to Martinez, I didn’t have the information readily available. Instead I will be focusing on 3+ year starter QBs first seasons. For this analysis I only considered QBs who have played since 2009 to focus on more recent players. A player also needed to have played in 9 games during that season for the analysis.
I wanted to start with how Martinez season compared to two other players to play under Scott Frost as either an OC or HC – Marcus Mariota and McKenzie Milton. (Note: During Mariota's freshman season, Frost was the WR coach at Oregon. He moved to OC/QB coach before Mariota's sophomore year at Oregon.)
Scott…

2019 All-NBA Predictions - Review

Last month, I wrote my first blog post predicting this season’s All-NBA teams using an ordinal response regression model. I trained my model on NBA data from the 1980-2018 NBA seasons using data from basketball-reference.com. Using only player stats, I knew my model would miss two key areas that NBA voters would notice: health and team success. Players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis put up great numbers while on the court, but both missed substantial time. Anthony Davis trade rumors also caused turmoil among the rosters of two teams hurting the win total of both the Lakers and Pelicans.
So how did the model perform? The short answer is Bradley Beal and Anthony Davis were included while Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic were left out of the top 15 players in the NBA. Let’s take a little closer look at each All-NBA team for the hits and misses.
First Team Position Actual Predicted Off Guard Steph Curry Damian Lillard 1 Guard James Harden James Harden 0 Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo Giannis …